Report warns that the northern and southern ends of the country continue with a high level of contagion.

The areas with the highest burden of new daily cases per 100.000 inhabitants are Magellan (38,0); The Lakes (33,5); Arica and Parinacota (22,6) and Aysén (13,7).

The ICovid Chile team, initiative led by the University of Chile, the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile and the University of Concepción, presented this Friday its report number 15, document that warns that the northern and southern ends of the country continue with a high level of contagion.

According to the latest report, with information obtained until November 14, at the national level there is an increase in the burden of coronavirus infection, while the transmission indicator is still about 1: i.e., the rate of infections continues to be increasing in the country.

The test indicator, at the same time, remains in adequate numbers and positivity has declined nationally. However, traceability indicators, both early consultation and early delivery of results, they still fail to reach a safe level in the country and more than half of the cases have a lag of more than three days between the onset of symptoms and confirmation.

Mauricio Lima, researcher in population dynamics and academic at the UC Faculty of Biological Sciences, explained that “the general picture of the epidemic in Chile this week is of values that have been improving in the central area of the country, but there is concern about the burden of infection in some regions of the center-south and an indication of increased transmission in the Atacama and Coquimbo regions.”.

1) DIMENSION ANALYSIS: Contagion

Regarding the Dynamics of Contagions, this new report shows that all regions of the country exceed the threshold of one daily infection per 100.000 inhabitants, which is the standard defined as safe, so there is a risk of regrowthe.

The regions with the highest number of infected are Magallanes (59,5 per 100.000 inhabitants), The Lakes (44,3 per 100.000 inhabitants), Los Ríos (37,6 per 100.000 inhabitants) and The Araucanía (26,0 per 100.000 inhabitants).

Between the previous report and the current report, a significant increase in the national average rate of new daily cases is observed (+8,6 percent), with regions showing even more worrying numbers like Ñuble (+35 percent), The Lakes (+32,3 percent) and Biobío (+18,9 percent).

2) Transmission

The transmission rate (R cash) is currently greater than 1 (1,07), i.e., that of a “mild growing epidemic” at the national level.

The regions with the highest transmission rates are Ñuble (1,32), Aysén (1,24), Atacama (1,24) and Coquimbo (1,23), so it's possible to talk about two geographic focuses with higher transmission values: one located between the regions of Uble and Los Lagos and the other between the regions of Atacama and Coquimbo.

Experts raise their concerns about these territories since “the summer holidays are approaching and with them the explosion of interregional travel”.

Catterina Ferreccio, epidemiologist and academic from uc's Department of Public Health, He points out that, with the reproduction rate of the epidemic over 1, “a higher than desirable number of new cases will continue in the coming weeks. Most worrying today is the persistence of high rates in the far north., and mainly in the southern regions of the country, in areas of high flow of domestic and foreign tourists in the summer”.

3) Testing

In the testing dimension it is observed that “the number of PCR tests performed per 1.000 inhabitants per week in the country remains high”, with a stable positivity nationwide with 4,4 percent (Yellow).

However, in some regions the positivity indicator remains at values above the national average, Magellan's figures are of particular concern (11,3 percent), Los Ríos (10,3 percent) and The Araucanía (9,2 percent), where “given the high burden of infected people in these regions, it is essential to rapidly increase the ability to test, increasing to 50 or more tests per 100.000 inhabitants”, ICovid Chile researchers recommend.

Marcelo Olivares, engineer and academic of the University of Chile, highlights the gradual improvement that has been observed in terms of testing capacity at the national level.

“This is a very relevant indicator to have an adequate measurement of the infectious load and thus keep an adequate control of the pandemic. However, we see that the situation in the region of Los Ríos and Los Lagos is extremely worrying: have a very high number of new cases, a high R transmission rate and high PCR test positivity. Insufficient testing capacity makes us lose visibility of the pandemic, making it difficult to take action to contain it”, pointed out the expert.

4) Traceability

The traceability dimension is maintained with orange color indicators at the national level and shows variability at the regional level, similar to those seen in the previous report.

The atacama regions, Coquimbo, the Araucanía, Lakes and Magellan show one or two of the traceability indicators in the red zone.

Early confirmation, measuring the percentage of confirmed cases within three days of the onset of symptoms, has been gradually improving since late September and currently 55 percent of cases were reported as suspected within two days of symptom onset..

In turn, there is a gradual improvement in test processing and, at the close of this report, 60 percent of PCR tests were reported within one day of the case being reported.

At the territorial level, some regions with low traceability rates are observed, and the situation in La Araucanía is of particular concern, where only 30 percent of cases are being confirmed within three days of symptom onset.

“Early detection and isolation of confirmed cases is critical to keeping transmission levels under control (…) Work must continue so that all these indicators exceed 60 percent. To the extent that this is achieved, we are getting closer to stabilizing transmission at controllable levels”, is raised in the report.

FALSE FEELINGS OF FATIGUE

With these results, Dr. Juan Carlos Said, master's degree in Public Health, said it was concerned “particularly La Araucanía: the ICovid report shows that positivity is greater than 10%, and is the region that has more indicators in red regarding the control of the pandemic”.

“In the south several things have failed, such as early confirmation”, Aimed.

“And today the main enemy, he warned.- is pandemic fatigue, the feeling that the pandemic is over, that the vaccine is just around the corner, when the reality is not that”.

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